The Iowa Caucuses- A Retrospective by Bob Hamill

Do you hear that?
No, what is it?
It is the sound of silence caused by the sudden exodus on January 4th of a dozen Presidential candidates, at least two Presidential dropouts, their families, their staffs, their groupies, and of course the national press corp. Many of these people have spent much of the past year in Iowa (Chris Dodd moved his whole family here last summer).

For over a year the morning paper would announce who was here and where they could be seen. Farming groups, union groups, veteran groups, AARP groups, university groups, school groups, health care workers, state county and municipal employee groups, and private citizens all hosted forums for individual candidates, and where possible mini-debates with 2 or more candidates present. These were the larger scheduled events. There were also plenty of word-of-mouth private events, or the surprise visit and walk-through events at county fairs, local restaurants, parks, taverns, and no doubt the occasional Laundromat…not for votes, but to wash out one’s well traveled underwear.

Everyday- usually in the evening- there would be at least 4-5 phone calls from unknown numbers. (Early in the process Lee & I vowed not to answer the phone if we couldn’t identify the caller. But they can still catch you if you are expecting a call, and the closest phone doesn’t show the caller ID- GOTCHA!!) Most unknown calls were recorded messages- either inviting you to an event or telling you that a vote for candidate X will insure a return to the gold standard. The worst calls were to answer a survey: Do you want your children’s children to be slaves to a national debt that you created? Do you want affordable health care or your grandmother attacked by Muslim extremists- you can’t have it both ways! It’s your choice! Should Farsi be taught in public schools? Is President Bush a Great President or The Greatest President? If it wasn’t for the $40+ million dollars that has been dropped on the Iowa economy, it might not be worth it.

The question that continues to come up regarding Iowa & New Hampshire- why are they first? They are not even typical of most states or even their regions. Here is a snapshot of Iowa (New Hampshire can live free or die all by itself):

State population- 2,982,000
Median Age- 37.8
% of population >65 yrs- 14.7%
% of Race: 94.9% White; 3.7% Hispanic; 2.3% Black; & 1.4% Asian
Education- High school graduate- 86.1%; College degree- 21.2%; Advanced Degrees- 7.4%
Median Income- $42,865
Home-ownership- 72.3%
Below the federal poverty line- 7.3%
Iowa has 25% of the country’s richest deepest top soil and 90% is under cultivation
In 2006 Iowa led the country in production of pork, corn, soybeans, and eggs
Iowa ranks 3rd nationally in total farm receipts
Of the Fortune 500 companies- more than 100 have production facilities in Iowa.
25% of what is produced in Iowa is shipped overseas
(pretty good considering Iowa is 1500 miles from either coast)
Iowa’s largest cities have a population of <200,000 people

Some political stats- about Iowa
The Republican Party was founded in Crawfordsville, Iowa
Current registration: Democratic- 638,573
Republican- 607,034
No Party- 809,236
Iowa’s 2-Senators are both in their 4th terms- Charles Grassley, Republican
Tom Harken, Democrat
Last Presidential election: 50% for Bush
49.3% for Kerry
In the last 8 elections, Iowa picked the correct party nominee 12 out of 16 attempts.
(2 of those missed were Reagan in 1980 (IA picked Bush,Sr., who became Vice-Pres.
& Bill Clinton in 1992)

Time for personal opinion
I think Iowa (and probably New Hampshire too) succeed as first caucus/primary states because they are (1.) good places for campaigners to practice their skills. As a candidate, if you say something stupid, it is better to say it in front of 20-people (who might forget it) than 20-million on a televised debate. (2.) Buying media spots gets expensive. In Iowa & New Hampshire television time has to be more affordable than in more populated states. Both locations are better places to test the effectiveness of your own advertising. There is just 1 more thing: the weather. It sucks, especially in January. If Iowa & New Hampshire lose 1st in the nation status, it will be due to weather-that-sucks.

How Caucuses work
This is an evening event to include working people. Typical sites for each precinct to meeting in include public schools, community centers, and in more rural areas, party rooms in restaurants or taverns. Doors open at 6 PM, but to anyone arriving after 7 PM, the doors are closed to latecomers. If people are already registered with their party, they just sign their name on the election rolls. If they want to change their registration, they just have to file a new registration form- but can do that on the spot. Each party determines their own rules.

The Republicans have a well organized meeting that begins and ends on time. Attendees vote by secret ballot or by a show of hands. Once the group’s preference is recorded (non-binding) the attendees may discuss any planks that they want to submit to the state convention for consideration in their party‘s platform. Everything, including the small talk, should be over within an hour. Balloons optional.

The Democrats have a more interesting meeting structure. Representation to county and state conventions are based on the viability of any candidate represented. Our precinct has 6-7 votes at the county conventions and so 15% is the minimum representation that is needed to be viable. For example- if 100 people register before the doors are closed, then every candidate represented must have at least 15 people supporting them. If there are only 10 people supporting Mike Gravel, then that group must convince 5-other people to join them, to qualify for 1-vote. If they cannot add to their number, the 10-people supporting Mike Gravel, should go to their 2nd choice to make another candidate viable or add to an already viable candidate’s strength. The interesting part is that unless you arrive as undecided, you will want to add to your candidate’s number of supporters, but others will want to pull you towards their choice.

My precinct had very good turnout with 453 participants at the Democratic caucus. This also raised the bar for viability because to obtain a single vote- a candidate had to have 68-supporters. Lee and I both joined the Richardson group, but with a total of only 20-votes, we dropped out early. Biden’s camp had 46-supporters- still not enough to be viable. Dodd & Kucinich only had 5-each, but Kucinich had already asked his supporters to go with Obama. Edwards had 60 supporters, still shy of viability. Hillary had 76, and Obama had 246! It was definitely a win for him. With the little bit of shuffling- Edwards and Biden were both made viable (1-vote each). Hillary had more support than Edwards, but by the rules, they each only had 1-vote. Obama remained the big winner with 3.5.

Having exercised our right to be heard, we returned home to CNN and local news to learn that both Chris Dodd and Joe Biden had dropped out of the race. Well Richardson is still in the race, but unfortunately not due to our support. Still it is nice to enjoy the quiet of January evenings ever since the 4th day in the month.


Respectfully submitted,

Bob Hamill
Cedar Rapids, Iowa